One more bad beat

8. July 2006 | Category: 50outs

I just busted out of the $2500 NLHE tournament. In the most hurting way. As usual. Like Katja yesterday (trip 666 vs. a pair of deuces when the money went in) we just get burned in the big pots. Here is my whining:

I was able to double up after about 30 minutes in the tournament to about 4300 in chips and went card after that for 3 hours. With a remaining stack of about 3000 I got QQ back-to-back and won two nice pots to get me to about 10500 chips (only 280 players left from ~1300, 99 in the money for $4600+).

Then came the hand: one of those unexperienced, bragging and steaming players made it 1500 to go with 25 ante and 150/300 blinds. He was to my right and I just called with AQ of spades, willing to give it up if the flop would not be looking good. They guy had about the same chips stack as I had (as it turned out a little later he had 400 more).

The flop came 894 with two spades. I flopped the nut flush draw with two overcards. The pot was about 4000 and he bets 2000. I sensed weakness there and called the 2000 bet and raised him 8400 more, all-in. I felt this is not the time to fool around, only 15 minutes left until dinner-break after that level 6. He went into the tank. Katja came over and watched the hand with me. After about 3-4 minutes he finally said “I call” and I showed my hand. He felt out of his chair when he saw my holding as he was almost dead: he had KJ of spades for no pair, no straight draw and a losing flush draw if it would hit. The pot was about 25000, I would have been the chip-leader or at least close to it winning this pot. But it came like it comes always in those big situations for us, the turn brought a red King and the river blanked out. Chips were counted, he had my slightly covered and I was done.

I am still feeling bad and burned out.

UPDATE: Katja and I were just taking dinner and we have talked and analyzed the hand from all angles. According to Pokerstove his chances have been under 20% to win the hand – combining this with the fold equity which I had upon moving all-in which we estimate at least 50/50 this makes this situation a 90% favorite for me. After following Cardplayers event coverage from that time I would have been in the top 5 chip leaders at that time with 25000 in chips. That one hurts.