Weighing the odds, uhm, pounds

27. October 2007 | Category: 50outs

Yes yes, long time since I posted, actually my last post is from WSOP times in Vegas. The reason is simple, I don’t have any time. IntelliPoker is eating all my hours. Talking about eating (omg how elegant did I make this switch?), I have been eating to much this year. Way to much. I feel perfect with 90kg, I can live with 95-100 but now I reached like 114!

How do you change this when the whole office staff on many days orders not one time pizza for lunch but another round, for dinner? For me, there’s only one answer: make a bet. A big bet. Having a perfect history of winning every single weight bet I entered so far (about some I blogged here and the money I won from guys like Steffen, Frank or Norman was very sweat) I figure myself to be a favorite – same as when I sit down on any poker table btw :D.

So, I looked for a mighty opponent during the last months and now I found even two – Andre Herzog and Klaus "B@nd!t" Hausmann. Both have agreed on a weightbet with me yesterday. Here’s the deal:

• The bet has started on October 26th 2007 and goes until May 30th 2008 (so just until the WSOP starts)
• I have a bet with Andre and Klaus but they don’t have one with each other (those chickens)
• We are comparing the percentage of the loss from the initial weight
• Each percent has defined value, so the bigger the gap, the more one wins
• Each particpant has the right to ask once a month about the opponents weight and he must give a true answer  
• There is a buyout option each month; this start cheap but gets more expensive with each month
• The values for Andre: EUR 100 as base value for the first percent, multiplying for each point. So, lets say by the end of the bet I have lost 24% of my inital weight, Andre has lost 11%, the difference being 13%. In this case Andre has to pay me EUR 9100 (first percent=100, second percent=200, third percent=300, 4th=400, 500+600,700,800,900,1000,1100,1200,1300). They buyout option follows the same system, base value EUR 1000. So, Andre could buy himself out of this mess in November for 1000, in December for 2000, in January for 3000, in February for 4000, in March for 5000 and in April for 6000. The last buyout chance is April 30th.
• The base values for Klaus are EUR 50 per percent and 500 per month, so half of the bet with Andre.
• No surgery allowed
• There are no exceptions – even a heartattack would mean continue or buyout (and pay).

The starting weights:

• Andre: 144.9 kg 
• Klaus: 165,0 kg
• Jan: 114 vs. Klaus and 113,6 vs Andre

On a funny sidenote, the weight from Klaus is a guess. My scale ends at 150, Klaus ends at 165. He convinced me that the scale was "showing something this morning" but the final pizza we ordered for lunch must have been to much, the scale showed "overloaded" lol.

My thoughts regarding this bet: I will win it, by far, lossing about 25% of weight overall. I will be behind both opponents at one point, probably by end of this year. But ovcerall I believe Klaus will take the buyout option, probably after 3-4 month when it is still relativly chep to get out and Andre will give me a hard fight, not taking any options but being behind at the end by 5-6%.

Any poker? Yeah… when I play online I usually get my owned, in the limits 50/100 and above you really need a good game and playing while working is a bad idea. Live poker is almost non-existing for me, with the exception of the EPT Baden, where I played all three big tournaments (without any success). I played 40+ hours in the lovely PLO sidegames but thats it. Next stop? PCA in January, I won’t go to Dublin, Prag or the German Championships :(. Spending a week in Las Vegas in December for the Bellagio Series sounds promising but I doubt I can make it there. Katja of course goes to all of those events and some more, Monday she leaves to EPT Dublin.

So, at least until the Carribean Adventure in January this will probably be more of "whats the hell made me make this damn bet" kind of blog than a poker blog.