WPO Tunica: Nightly calculations

25. January 2005 | Category: 50outs

My sleep last night was not to good at all. While I felt asleep after my head hit the cushion (around 6:45pm when I was up, traveling/working 36 hours) after some hours I woke up and could not sleep again for some hours as all the happenings over the last days went thru my head. I guess that is just the normal process used by the human brain to work thru information and emotional overload. As I re-thought my tournaments I had the idea to set up a list of all the hands that I had and calculate the percentages. In the dark of the night I had the feeling I would have been a about 70% favorite in these hands, lets see is this is going to hold up. Ok here’s the list, I took the percentages from cardplayer’s analyser:

Event/buyin Player Holecards Opponent Board Money in Chances (Preflop) Chances (Money in)
NLHE 1000$ Katja AA KTo Txx-x-T On flop 86.2% 81.6%
NLHE 1500$ Katja AQs 33 xxx-x-x Preflop 49.7% 49.7%
PLHE 1000$ Katja AJs TT x3T-3-x On flop 45.9% 65.6%
NLHE 2000$ Katja 99 A6o Axx-x-x Preflop 70.8% 70.8%
NLHE 3000$ Katja KTs KK xxx-x-x Preflop 14.6% 14.6%
NLHE 1000$ Jan AQs K7o KQ3-x-x On flop 66.7% 26.2%
NLHE 1500$ Jan KK 88 x8x-x-x Preflop 81.7% 81.7%
PLHE 1000$ Jan AQs JJ xxx-x-x Preflop 45.9% 45.9%
LIHE 1500$ Jan QQ A4s 567-J-3 Turn 66.8% 75.0%
NLHE 2000$ Jan JJ AA 789-x-x On flop 19.7% 25.2%
LIHE 2000$ Jan KK 97o 56J-8-x Turn 82.2% 0.0%

I ommited the PLO event with rebuys here, my chances on the flopped nut straight against trip aces are 71.22% and with the flopped top set against the wrap straight draw 57.80%.

We see here that my “70%” feeling was pretty off, in fact it turns out that overall my chances (preflop) were slightly above 60% and when the money went in only 42% overall!!! (cumulated percentages ./. 6 events). So the lesson to be learned here is that my starting hand hand selection is prety good but I failed in 2-3 cases to release my hand when I had the worst of it (on the other side, when you release your hand to everything that looks possible you hardly ever see a showdown).


By the way, cardplayer. While I already get the regular cardplayer magazine to my home I had also ordered the “cardplayer europe” in september but never got an issue. I remembered about that when I had Barry Shulman, cardplayer CEO, to me left for some hours (must have been in the 1500 limit event). I talked to him and told him about it. I must say first that I have mixed feelings about the guy. I always think that I never like to have a boss or a client like him, brutal open and direct with a fast tongue. Then I played last april in the 5,000$ NLHE with him where he acted like drunk and took a very hard beat (not a bad beat) on me when his AKo rivered a king against my QQ with only 20 (!) players left (next hand I got busted with KK against david phams AKo). But when I told about him about the missing issues and nobody anserwed my email about it he promised to check it up personally and this is what he have done. Without any further talking about he not only checked it all out and fixed it in his office he also got me called out to deliver the last 3 issues personally to me. That was great, thanks.


This weekend is a tournament in Seefeld, austria which I totally forgot. Many are going there but we can’t, nothing is prepared and no arrangements are made. In fact I have some business meeting on friday so the travel is not possible :-(.

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